Topic Guide
What Is Regime change?
Regime change is a subject covered in depth across 10 podcast episodes in our database. Below you'll find key concepts, expert insights, and the top episodes to listen to — all distilled from hours of conversation by leading experts.
Key Concepts in Regime change
Escalation trap
A framework developed by Professor Robert Pape describing how wars, especially those initiated with 'smart bombs,' progress through stages. Stage one sees tactical success (targets hit) but strategic failure (core objectives unmet, like nuclear material secured). Stage two, regime change, often replaces leaders with more aggressive ones. Stage three involves ground forces, historically leading to homeland retaliation by the enemy, as nations become locked into escalating responses.
Horizontal escalation
A military strategy where an adversary, instead of directly engaging the attacking power, broadens the conflict geographically by striking the attacker's allies or economic interests in other regions. Iran is employing this by using drones against Saudi Arabia and the UAE to threaten their tourism industries and fracture the coalition against them, rather than directly attacking US bases.
War of choice
A conflict initiated by a country rather than in direct response to a direct attack on its homeland. Professor Pape argues that wars of choice put the politics in the opponent's advantage, as they lack the foundational public anger and unity seen in defensive wars (like the US entering WWII after Pearl Harbor), making them difficult for democracies to sustain in the long term.
Regime change light
A strategy, attributed to former President Trump by Anthony Scaramucci, where a country's leadership is effectively changed or influenced without a full-scale military invasion. This approach was successfully implemented in Venezuela, where a new leadership was installed without bloodshed, by leveraging economic sanctions and incentives for military generals.
Oil's most volatile day in history
A dramatic period characterized by extreme fluctuations in oil prices, described in the episode as a consequence of the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, particularly after reports of Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz. This volatility reflects market uncertainty and the critical importance of the Strait as a global energy choke point.
Ieds of the water
A term used by Tom Ellsworth to describe the Iranian mines laid in the Strait of Hormuz. Analogous to Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) used in land warfare, these are low-tech, easily deployed devices that can cause significant disruption, create havoc, and interrupt highly organized opponents, posing a challenge to conventional naval power and global shipping.
What Experts Say About Regime change
- 1.The central thesis of the episode is that "without regime change, nothing's going to change" in Iran.
- 2.The speaker proposes incentivizing the Iranian people into another uprising, acknowledging their current fear of government reprisal following the January events.
- 3.The Kurds are suggested as a strategic asset, providing "a good start" and a "very good distraction" to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
- 4.The speaker questions the potential for Mossad or the IDF to get involved, noting their operational constraints, specifically referencing being "under a short leash" from "Trump's control."
- 5.The combination of internal uprisings and strategic distractions is presented as the "most effective end game" for achieving change in Iran.
- 6.Professor Robert Pape's 20 years of Iran war simulations predict the US is "losing control of the situation," trapped in an escalation spiral with a 75% chance of ground forces being deployed.